الدكتور وشاح رزاق
ثم قامت الولايات المتحدة بتدمير العراق مرتين، الأولى لإخراج صدام حسين من الكويت ثم للإطاحة به كلياً في 2003.
أُعلن مؤخراً عن نية الولايات المتحدة بإجلاء جيوشها من العراق هذه السنة لذا نرى أن الوقت مناسباً لتقييم نتائج الصراعات المسلحة التي عصفت بالعراق.
إن نتائج هذه الصراعات والاحتلال الأجنبي أدت إلى إرجاع عملية التنمية في العراق خمسين سنة إلى الوراء بأقل تقدير.
إن الرسميين البيانيين رقم (1) ورقم (2) يمثلان الناتج القومي الإجمالي للفرد والمعدّل بأخذ القوة الشرائية بنظر الاعتبار ومن قاعدتين مختلفتين للبيانات.
يقيس الناتج القومي الإجمالي القيمة الكلية لإنتاج السلع والخدمات في السنة.
ويعتبر هذا المقياس مؤشراً لمدى غنى أو فقر البلد حيث أن القيمة الأكبر تدل على زيادة مستوى الغنى وكونه معدلاً بالقوة الشرائية يمكننا من المقارنة.
كما يبدوا واضحاً بأن العراق وإيران شهدوا نمواً سريعاً في الفترة من 1950 إلى 1960، وأن العراق كان أسرع نمواً في الستينات من القرن الماضي خصوصاً وأن تلك الفترة من الزمن شهدت زيادة في إنتاج النفط والتصنيع وعدد السكان.
يبدوا واضحاً أيضاً تأثير الحرب التي اندلعت في 1980 على البلدين حيث تدهور الناتج القومي الإجمالي للفرد بشكل سريع.
أما بعد الحرب الإيرانية – العراقية فقد شهدت استمرار تدهور الاقتصاد العراقي بسبب حرب الخليج الأولى والثانية ثم الاحتلال الأمريكي، بينما عاد الوضع الاقتصادي الإيراني إلى النمو مجدداً.
إن معدل الدخل القومي الإجمالي للفرد في العراق في سنة 2008 في قاعدة البيانات الأولى وفي سنة 2009 في قاعدة البيانات الثانية أقل مما كان عليه في 1950 و 1970.
بالإضافة إلى تدهور الدخل القومي / للفرد في العراق فإن بيانات البنك الدولي الوحيدة المتوفرة عن العراق هي عن معدل الإعالة والذي يعطينا فكرة عن عدد السكان من غير العاملين كالأطفال والكبار والمعاقين...الخ.
كلما ارتفعت هذه النسبة في السكان كلما ازداد العبء لإعالتهم من قبل هؤلاء الذين يعملون.
إن هذه النسبة ازدادت من 82.75 في 1960 إلى 87.67 في سنة 2010 في العراق، وانخفضت في إيران من 84.07 سنة 1960 إلى 39.23 سنة 2010.
وأخيراً في الرسوم البيانية 3، 4 و 5 نرسم نسبة الطلبة الذين لم ينهوا دراستهم في المراحل الابتدائية والثانوية والجامعية (من ضمنها المعاهد العالية) في العراق وإيران - معدل التسرب.
وكما يبدوا واضحاً بأن نسبة هؤلاء الطلبة الذين لم ينهوا دراستهم قد ازداد خلال الزمن في العراق وبنسبة أكبر من إيران خصوصاً في مراحل الدراسة الثانوية والجامعية إما لأسباب اقتصادية كالبحث عن عمل أو ربما قتلوا أو هجروا.. الخ من مصائب أخرى نتاج الحروب والدمار.
في 2010، في المرحلة الابتدائية هناك %12 من السكان لم ينهوا دراستهم، و %13 في المرحلة الثانوية و %59 في المرحلة الجامعية.
إن هذا الانخفاض في راس المال البشري عامل مهم في تدهور النمو الاقتصادي في العراق.
إ ن تدهور الناتج القومي الإجمالي / للفرد وزيادة العبء لإعالة الغير قادرين على العمل وانهيار النظام التعليمي وتدهور مستوى رأس المال البشري له علاقة مباشرة بالصراعات الخارجية التي مر بها العراق والحصار الدولي والاحتلال الأجنبي منذ عام 1980.
Iraq: Setting the Development Clock Half a Century Back
The vicious war between Iraq and Iran began in September 1980 ended in 1988. In 1990, Saddam Hussein recklessly invaded neighboring Kuwait. The US government bombed Iraq to the pre-industrial age twice, first in 1991 to evict Saddam Hussein from Kuwait, and then in 2003, to remove him from power completely and occupy the country. The American troops are said to be leaving Iraq before the end of 2011 so it is a good time to assess the outcomes. The outcomes of all these conflicts and the subsequent occupation are grave; Iraq is at least fifty years behind in development.
Figure 1 plots the PPP-adjusted real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per person for Iraq and Iran. The source is the Maddison data set.[1] Figure 2 plots the same variable taken from a different source, Alan Heston, Robert Summers, and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 7.0, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, May 2011. These are the best estimates available for macroeconomists.
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figure 3.
Figure 4.
Figure 5.
The destruction of the Iraqi economy measured by its GDP per person—beginning with the Iraq-Iran war in 1980, the collapse of its education system, and the increase of the burden on average citizen—is associated with external conflicts, international sanctions, and foreign occupations, which spanned the period 1980 to date.
[2] Barro, R. and Jong-Wha Lee, A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010, NBER Working Paper No 15902, April 2010.
The vicious war between Iraq and Iran began in September 1980 ended in 1988. In 1990, Saddam Hussein recklessly invaded neighboring Kuwait. The US government bombed Iraq to the pre-industrial age twice, first in 1991 to evict Saddam Hussein from Kuwait, and then in 2003, to remove him from power completely and occupy the country. The American troops are said to be leaving Iraq before the end of 2011 so it is a good time to assess the outcomes. The outcomes of all these conflicts and the subsequent occupation are grave; Iraq is at least fifty years behind in development.
Figure 1 plots the PPP-adjusted real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per person for Iraq and Iran. The source is the Maddison data set.[1] Figure 2 plots the same variable taken from a different source, Alan Heston, Robert Summers, and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 7.0, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, May 2011. These are the best estimates available for macroeconomists.
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
The measure of GDP per person is a typical measure for the richness of a country. A high number is always preferred to a lower one. GDP measures the total value of all goods and services produced in a country in a year. Also, GDP should be equal to the sum of total consumption of goods and services, total investments, total government expenditures, exports of all goods and services minus imports of goods and services from abroad. It is adjusted using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), which takes into account prices in the US and in the country under study, and the exchange rate against the dollar. The PPP figures are always larger than the actual unadjusted figures, but they allow one to compare countries. The differences between the Maddison numbers and Penn World table are related to the different ways used to compute the data.
In 1950, Iraq and Iran were still monarchies. The Iraqis and the Iranians were almost equally rich (or poor) in 1950. From 1950 to the early 1970s both countries grew richer, perhaps because of the increase in oil production, increase in human capital levels, and rapid industrialization, but Iraq grew faster than Iran in the1960s. When the war between the two countries began in 1980 income in both countries tumbled. Note that Iraq’s GDP per person continued to fall rather sharply while Iran’s income stabilized around 1990, then resumed its positive growth. The main shift occurred in 1991, when Iraq embarked on another unfortunate adventure in Kuwait, followed by the crippling UN sanctions and the American invasion in 2003. Iraq’s income per person never recovered.
Iraq’s income per person in 2008 (figure 1) is in fact lower than its level in 1950, and in figure 2 the 2009 level is less the level in 1970. Iraq’s GDP per person (PPP) in 1950 was 1,364 dollars; it declined to 1,049 dollars in 2008. In figure 2, Iraq’s GDP per person level was estimated at 5458 dollars in 1970, and declined to 4713.8 dollars in 2009. Thus the average Iraqi today is poorer than the average Iraqi in 1950 according to both data sets.
The World Bank reports the dependency ratio, which is the ratio of the number of dependents to working age population. This statistic gives insight into the number of people of non-working age compared to the overall economy. A high ratio means that those of working age—and the overall economy—face a greater burden in supporting the unable-to-work population. This ratio is reported to have increased in Iraq from 82.75 in 1960 to 87.67 in 2010. In Iran, it declined from 84.07 in 1960 to 39.23 in 2010.
Barro and Lee (2010) estimate the level of human capital, which is measured by the average years of schooling.[2] Human capital is a key driver of economic growth. Iran has always had a slightly higher level of human capital than Iraq, though they were almost identical in 1990. The average years of schooling was 4.75 years in Iran and 4.37 years in Iraq. By 2010, Barro and Lee estimated that Iran’s average is 8.14 years while Iraq’s is 5.85. Millions of people did not complete their education, more so in Iraq.
Figure 3, 4, and 5 plot the percentage of students in total population, who never completed their school in Iran and Iraq, and in three schooling levels: primary, secondary, and tertiary. Students who do not complete school could have dropped out for a number of reasons: to work or migrate, they were killed or imprisoned, etc. A high number indicates lower level of human capital and, hence probably a slower economic growth rate. The percentage of students who did not complete their schooling increased over time, with more in Iraq than in Iran.
In 1950, Iraq and Iran were still monarchies. The Iraqis and the Iranians were almost equally rich (or poor) in 1950. From 1950 to the early 1970s both countries grew richer, perhaps because of the increase in oil production, increase in human capital levels, and rapid industrialization, but Iraq grew faster than Iran in the1960s. When the war between the two countries began in 1980 income in both countries tumbled. Note that Iraq’s GDP per person continued to fall rather sharply while Iran’s income stabilized around 1990, then resumed its positive growth. The main shift occurred in 1991, when Iraq embarked on another unfortunate adventure in Kuwait, followed by the crippling UN sanctions and the American invasion in 2003. Iraq’s income per person never recovered.
Iraq’s income per person in 2008 (figure 1) is in fact lower than its level in 1950, and in figure 2 the 2009 level is less the level in 1970. Iraq’s GDP per person (PPP) in 1950 was 1,364 dollars; it declined to 1,049 dollars in 2008. In figure 2, Iraq’s GDP per person level was estimated at 5458 dollars in 1970, and declined to 4713.8 dollars in 2009. Thus the average Iraqi today is poorer than the average Iraqi in 1950 according to both data sets.
The World Bank reports the dependency ratio, which is the ratio of the number of dependents to working age population. This statistic gives insight into the number of people of non-working age compared to the overall economy. A high ratio means that those of working age—and the overall economy—face a greater burden in supporting the unable-to-work population. This ratio is reported to have increased in Iraq from 82.75 in 1960 to 87.67 in 2010. In Iran, it declined from 84.07 in 1960 to 39.23 in 2010.
Barro and Lee (2010) estimate the level of human capital, which is measured by the average years of schooling.[2] Human capital is a key driver of economic growth. Iran has always had a slightly higher level of human capital than Iraq, though they were almost identical in 1990. The average years of schooling was 4.75 years in Iran and 4.37 years in Iraq. By 2010, Barro and Lee estimated that Iran’s average is 8.14 years while Iraq’s is 5.85. Millions of people did not complete their education, more so in Iraq.
Figure 3, 4, and 5 plot the percentage of students in total population, who never completed their school in Iran and Iraq, and in three schooling levels: primary, secondary, and tertiary. Students who do not complete school could have dropped out for a number of reasons: to work or migrate, they were killed or imprisoned, etc. A high number indicates lower level of human capital and, hence probably a slower economic growth rate. The percentage of students who did not complete their schooling increased over time, with more in Iraq than in Iran.
Figure 3.
Figure 4.
The percentage of primary school students who did not complete primary school has been increasing sharply in both Iraq and Iran, with Iraq slightly worse than Iran, up until 2004-2005. The percentage of those not completing primary school in Iraq in 2010 is estimated to be 12 percent of total population.
In fact, Iran has made some progress at the secondary level, because the percentage of dropouts has fallen over time. It was estimated to be 13.1 percent in Iraq in 2010.
Figure 3 plots the percentage of students in tertiary education who did not complete their studies. This has a positive trend too. Iraq, again, is ahead of Iran.
In fact, Iran has made some progress at the secondary level, because the percentage of dropouts has fallen over time. It was estimated to be 13.1 percent in Iraq in 2010.
Figure 3 plots the percentage of students in tertiary education who did not complete their studies. This has a positive trend too. Iraq, again, is ahead of Iran.
Figure 5.
To have an idea about the absolute numbers, Barro and Lee estimate the population (15+) in 2010 for Iraq and Iran to be approximately 20 million and 55 million, respectively.
The destruction of the Iraqi economy measured by its GDP per person—beginning with the Iraq-Iran war in 1980, the collapse of its education system, and the increase of the burden on average citizen—is associated with external conflicts, international sanctions, and foreign occupations, which spanned the period 1980 to date.
[2] Barro, R. and Jong-Wha Lee, A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010, NBER Working Paper No 15902, April 2010.
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